CRVL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CRVL +1.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CRVL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
81.47 +1.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
82.82 +3.0% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 81.78 · prior close 80.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
79.34 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
78.05 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 79.00 | 2 in 10 days | 81.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 79.34 | 3 in 10 days | 81.47 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 79.66 | 4 in 10 days | 81.15 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 77.30 | 2 in 10 weeks | 83.62 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 78.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 82.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 78.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 82.08 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CRVL's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +1.0% | — | — | — |
| Feb 4, 2025 | +7.5% | -5.3% | -13.0% | -10.7% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | +11.0% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.3% |
| Aug 29, 2024 | +1.7% | -4.6% | +2.2% | +12.9% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | +7.5% | +2.8% | +6.9% | +11.3% |
| May 15, 2024 | +2.7% | +3.8% | -9.1% | +17.4% |
| Mar 28, 2024 | +1.7% | -8.4% | -8.0% | -3.3% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | +4.2% | -5.0% | -0.7% | +6.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among CRVL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 5, 2025 |
128.46 +57.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 82.82 +1.3% |
| Now | 81.78 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
81.78 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
80.40 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.05 -4.6% |
| 50-day average | 71.01 -13.2% |
| 200-day average | 61.77 -24.5% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 9, 2026 |
46.00 -43.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.