CRWD
Moving with its cybersecurity peers
- CRWD −2.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Cybersecurity basket -1.8% (-1.9 pts vs SPY; NET -4.1%, FTNT -2.0%, OKTA -1.7%, PANW -1.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, CRWD was higher a month later 43 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +12.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 5 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.4× its recent daily average.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (6 positive, 0 negative); latest: Freedom Broker maintained Buy, raised target $260 → $320.
- 21 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 4 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CRWD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
258.80 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
271.07 +8.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 244.29 · prior close 249.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
240.13 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
229.26 -8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 237.22 | 2 in 10 days | 261.97 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 240.13 | 3 in 10 days | 258.80 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 242.86 | 4 in 10 days | 255.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 223.11 | 2 in 10 weeks | 278.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 229.26 | 3 in 10 weeks | 271.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 235.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 264.28 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CRWD's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.8% | -6.1% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.2% | -2.4% | +20.3% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -3.8% | -11.5% | +11.8% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -3.7% | -4.9% | +5.5% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -5.7% | +8.5% | +20.3% | +40.5% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | -3.8% | -3.8% | +8.3% | +19.6% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.9% | +15.8% | +8.6% | +17.3% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -4.6% | +0.1% | +49.0% | +64.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among CRWD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 325.00 +33.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
278.86 +14.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 271.07 +11.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
249.29 +2.0% |
| Now | 244.29 |
| Mean analyst target | 244.01 -0.1% |
| 50-day average | 232.77 -4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 229.26 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 160.01 -34.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 132.00 -46.0% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 24, 2026 |
87.56 -64.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.