CRWV
Stock fell 15% on bond yield spike
- CRWV −15.46% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −14.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: CoreWeave shares fell 15% after bond yields spiked due to rising debt burden concerns, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- More than its group: its cloud peers -4.8% (-3.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (129 mentions vs 4.4/day the week before): After its 15 mention spikes in the past 5 years, CRWV was higher a month later 4 times out of 15; half the outcomes fell between -14.5% and +5.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 129 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 25.8× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy, target $151.
- 13 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 8 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 3.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CRWV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
69.61 +5.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
74.66 +13.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 65.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
62.16 -5.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
57.96 -11.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 61.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 70.91 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 62.16 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 69.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 63.23 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 68.43 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 55.62 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 77.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 57.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 74.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 60.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 71.85 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CRWV's daily swings (about 5.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -7.8% | — | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -12.1% | -5.5% | -14.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -11.4% | -0.2% | +20.0% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -13.9% | +4.7% | -16.2% | +1.7% |
| May 8, 2026 | -11.4% | -6.0% | -13.8% | -22.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CRWV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 278.00 +322.6% |
| All-time closing high Jun 20, 2025 |
183.58 +179.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 16, 2025 |
141.74 +115.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 141.47 +115.1% |
| 200-day average | 92.53 +40.7% |
| 50-day average | 87.92 +33.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 74.66 +13.5% |
| Last close Oct 14, 2026 |
65.78 |
| 52-week closing low Jul 29, 2026 |
60.82 -7.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 57.96 -11.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 39.00 -40.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.