CSCO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CSCO +3.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, CSCO typically gained 2.5% over the next month (median) and was higher 61% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.1% and +6.4%. An ordinary month: +1.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #66 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#228 H | +0.5%#90 H | +1.3%#143 H | +3.0%#211 M |
| Big drop (-1.6% or worse) | 65 | +0.4%#32 H | +0.6%#100 H | +3.2%#38 H | +6.9%#74 M |
| Big gain latest session (+2.0% or better) | 66 | -0.1%#481 H | +0.7%#130 H | +2.5%#66 H | +8.8%#22 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | +0.1%#241 H | +0.4%#265 H | +1.4%#188 H | +3.2%#189 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 13 | +0.7%#57 M | +0.8%#28 M | +3.5%#25 M | +4.2%#68 M |
| 52-week low | 3 | -0.4%#244 L | +0.3%#156 L | +10.9%#15 L | +25.0%#6 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | -0.4%#312 L | +0.6%#226 L | +2.8%#114 L | +15.5%#39 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -0.6%#492 L | +0.7%#198 L | +6.6%#8 L | +16.5%#72 L |
| RSI oversold | 7 | -0.2%#365 L | +1.5%#109 L | +4.6%#28 L | +13.8%#89 L |
| RSI overbought | 22 | +0.1%#177 H | +0.3%#193 H | +0.6%#243 M | +2.7%#140 M |
| Reddit spike | 12 | -0.2%#63 M | +0.3%#50 M | +1.1%#50 M | +3.6%#48 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is CSCO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 22 | +0.11% (-0.5 to +0.4) | High | #177 of 501 | 50% | +0.10% |
-4%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 22 | +0.32% (-2.5 to +1.5) | High | #193 of 501 | 59% | -0.08% |
-5%
+22%
|
|
| 1 month | 22 ≈19 indep. | +0.62% (-0.6 to +3.5) | Medium | #243 of 501 | 59% | +0.65% |
-12%
+32%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 22 ≈12 indep. | +2.74% (-0.3 to +8.7) | Medium | #140 of 501 | 68% | +3.65% |
-14%
+28%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CSCO's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 18 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | +0.3%M vs +0.7% | +1.6%M vs +2.2% | +5.4%M vs +5.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -0.9%– vs 0.0% | -3.4%– vs +0.4% | -3.3%– vs +1.1% | -0.9%– vs +3.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 21 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.2%H vs +0.4% | +1.2%M vs +1.5% | +3.6%M vs +4.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 21 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +0.2%H vs +0.4% | +1.2%M vs +1.5% | +3.6%M vs +2.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where CSCO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | May 8 @ $95.84 | RSI 72.6, +4.8% on the day | +2.2% | +22.4% | +24.6% | +27.4% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Apr 20 @ $87.05 | RSI 71.0, +1.7% on the day | +2.3% | +0.6% | +31.5% | +28.4% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Feb 3 @ $82.04 | RSI 74.6, +3.1% on the day | -2.3% | +3.8% | -3.7% | +14.1% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Dec 10 @ $78.79 | RSI 71.0, +0.9% on the day | -1.2% | -5.3% | -7.3% | -1.9% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Nov 19 @ $76.97 | RSI 71.7, +1.3% on the day | -3.8% | -3.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Nov 3 @ $73.10 | RSI 70.9, +1.8% on the day | -2.9% | -3.2% | +4.4% | +9.6% |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Jun 24 @ $65.86 | RSI 70.7, +0.8% on the day | +0.4% | +1.8% | +1.2% | +0.1% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Jun 6 @ $64.08 | RSI 74.3, +2.2% on the day | -0.2% | -3.0% | +5.5% | +1.9% |
| May 15, 2025 | May 15 @ $62.34 | RSI 73.9, +4.8% on the day | -1.0% | -1.4% | +1.9% | +3.6% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Feb 13 @ $61.52 | RSI 70.5, +2.1% on the day | +1.6% | +0.2% | -4.6% | +1.3% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Jan 21 @ $58.81 | RSI 71.0, +1.3% on the day | +1.0% | -2.6% | +6.0% | -9.2% |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Nov 26 @ $57.04 | RSI 70.9, +1.4% on the day | -0.5% | +0.1% | 0.0% | +7.3% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Nov 6 @ $55.39 | RSI 73.4, +3.0% on the day | +0.4% | +2.3% | +3.5% | +9.3% |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Oct 9 @ $51.26 | RSI 72.4, +1.6% on the day | 0.0% | +5.3% | +8.4% | +10.4% |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 24 @ $49.89 | RSI 71.1, +0.6% on the day | +0.2% | +0.4% | +8.0% | +13.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.