CSCO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CSCO −3.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.8% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.7%): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, CSCO was higher a week later 41 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CSCO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
115.94 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
118.85 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 109.27 · prior close 113.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
111.39 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
108.66 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 110.66 | 2 in 10 days | 116.70 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 111.39 | 3 in 10 days | 115.94 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 112.06 | 4 in 10 days | 115.24 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 107.09 | 2 in 10 weeks | 120.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 108.66 | 3 in 10 weeks | 118.85 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 110.14 | 4 in 10 weeks | 117.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CSCO's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CSCO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +55.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 136.16 +24.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 4, 2026 |
129.02 +18.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 118.85 +8.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
113.64 +4.0% |
| 50-day average | 111.54 +2.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 110.00 +0.7% |
| Now | 109.27 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 108.66 -0.6% |
| 200-day average | 98.68 -9.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
67.41 -38.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 37 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.