CSL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CSL +3.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CSL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
332.51 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
340.12 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 338.52 · prior close 326.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
320.57 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
313.41 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 318.68 | 2 in 10 days | 334.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 320.57 | 3 in 10 days | 332.51 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 322.35 | 4 in 10 days | 330.68 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 309.28 | 2 in 10 weeks | 344.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 313.41 | 3 in 10 weeks | 340.12 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 317.31 | 4 in 10 weeks | 335.93 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CSL's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CSL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 14, 2024 |
469.80 +38.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
414.77 +22.5% |
| 200-day average | 350.21 +3.5% |
| 50-day average | 342.35 +1.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 340.12 +0.5% |
| Now | 338.52 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
326.49 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 313.41 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
292.61 -13.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.