CSX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CSX +0.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.53 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±3.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, lowered target $54.00 → $53.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CSX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.78 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
49.40 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 48.71 · prior close 48.28 | |
| Bargain buy side |
47.79 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
47.18 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 47.63 | 2 in 10 days | 48.94 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 47.79 | 3 in 10 days | 48.78 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 47.94 | 4 in 10 days | 48.63 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 46.83 | 2 in 10 weeks | 49.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 47.18 | 3 in 10 weeks | 49.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 47.51 | 4 in 10 weeks | 49.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CSX's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CSX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 60.00 +23.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 24, 2026 |
53.08 +9.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 52.80 +8.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 49.40 +1.4% |
| 50-day average | 48.78 +0.2% |
| Now | 48.71 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
48.28 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 47.18 -3.1% |
| 200-day average | 44.60 -8.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
33.25 -31.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 32.00 -34.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.