CVS
Moving with its group (XLV +2.7%)
- CVS +2.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.7% (+2.7 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, CVS was higher a week later 43 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +3.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CVS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
91.90 +1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
93.81 +3.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 92.21 · prior close 90.39 | |
| Bargain buy side |
88.90 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
87.10 -3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 88.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 92.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 88.90 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 91.90 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 89.35 | 4 in 10 days | 91.44 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 86.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 94.95 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 87.10 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 93.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 88.08 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 92.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CVS's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | +4.8% | -3.0% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +3.9% | -2.3% | -12.7% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +2.8% | -0.5% | -14.8% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +3.0% | +2.3% | +6.7% | -13.0% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.8% | +6.0% | +10.0% | +3.1% |
| May 6, 2026 | +7.6% | +13.0% | +10.4% | +11.5% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | +3.3% | -0.4% | +14.8% | +31.6% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | +2.4% | +3.6% | +26.0% | +41.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among CVS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 145.00 +57.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 115.76 +25.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 21, 2026 |
109.92 +19.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 103.00 +11.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 93.81 +1.7% |
| Now | 92.21 |
| 50-day average | 91.79 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
90.39 -2.0% |
| 200-day average | 87.44 -5.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 87.10 -5.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
69.04 -25.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.