CVX
Moving with its oil & gas peers
- CVX −1.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Oil & gas basket -0.8% (-1.0 pts vs SPY; XOM -1.3%, OXY -1.1%, COP -0.1%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, 52-week high (Oct 14): After its 8 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, CVX was higher a week later 5 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -0.3% and +2.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $220 → $235.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CVX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
225.13 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
229.02 +3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 219.44 · prior close 222.04 | |
| Bargain buy side |
218.99 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
215.27 -3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 218.01 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 226.15 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 218.99 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 225.13 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 219.91 | 4 in 10 days | 224.19 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 213.12 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 231.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 215.27 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 229.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 217.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 226.88 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CVX's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | +1.9% | -1.1% | -1.1% | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +2.1% | +1.8% | -0.9% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +4.5% | +4.0% | +10.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +2.3% | -2.8% | +5.0% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +3.3% | +4.1% | +7.9% | +17.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.1% | +4.3% | +14.2% | +23.5% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +1.8% | +1.8% | -10.8% | +11.9% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | +2.4% | +1.3% | -1.9% | — |
| Mar 12, 2026 | +2.7% | +2.3% | -2.6% | -4.8% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | +1.0% | -0.2% | +6.1% | +2.2% |
| Jan 5, 2026 | +5.1% | -0.9% | +10.6% | +24.2% |
| Mar 18, 2025 | +1.3% | +3.2% | -15.8% | -6.3% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | +1.1% | +0.5% | -11.5% | -2.0% |
| Jan 26, 2023 | +4.9% | -10.0% | -12.5% | -10.3% |
| Oct 28, 2022 | +1.2% | +1.9% | +1.4% | -2.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among CVX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +13.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 229.02 +4.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 226.04 +3.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
222.04 +1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
222.04 +1.2% |
| Now | 219.44 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 215.27 -1.9% |
| 50-day average | 206.11 -6.1% |
| 200-day average | 187.18 -14.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 175.00 -20.3% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
142.76 -34.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.