CWT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CWT +0.89% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CWT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
46.28 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
46.86 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 46.23 · prior close 45.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.36 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
44.81 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 45.22 | 2 in 10 days | 46.43 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 45.36 | 3 in 10 days | 46.28 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 45.50 | 4 in 10 days | 46.14 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.48 | 2 in 10 weeks | 47.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 44.81 | 3 in 10 weeks | 46.86 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 45.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 46.54 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CWT's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CWT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 3, 2022 |
64.55 +39.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
52.09 +12.7% |
| 50-day average | 48.22 +4.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 46.86 +1.4% |
| Now | 46.23 |
| 200-day average | 46.02 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
45.82 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 44.81 -3.1% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 9, 2025 |
41.39 -10.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.