DBVT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DBVT +2.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DBVT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.17 +3.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
9.56 +7.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 9.06 · prior close 8.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.58 -3.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
8.23 -7.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 8.48 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 9.27 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 9.17 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.66 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 9.08 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.03 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 9.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 9.56 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 8.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 9.35 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DBVT's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | -1.0% | -8.5% | — | — |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -6.1% | -22.6% | +505.7% | +593.2% |
| Sep 12, 2024 | -3.3% | -0.7% | -5.6% | +347.6% |
| Jun 7, 2024 | -10.9% | -1.2% | -20.8% | -22.8% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | -0.9% | -1.7% | -22.2% | -40.1% |
| Nov 21, 2023 | -4.8% | -8.5% | +13.6% | +3.6% |
| Oct 18, 2023 | -4.2% | -4.4% | -24.2% | -26.5% |
| May 11, 2022 | -9.4% | +15.7% | +140.0% | +132.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among DBVT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 11, 2017 |
98.72 +990.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 23, 2026 |
24.54 +171.0% |
| 200-day average | 17.39 +92.1% |
| 50-day average | 12.50 +38.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.56 +5.6% |
| Now | 9.06 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
8.87 -2.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.87 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.23 -9.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.