DEI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DEI +2.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.36%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DEI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.47 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
9.71 +4.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 9.53 · prior close 9.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.11 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
8.89 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.05 | 2 in 10 days | 9.54 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.11 | 3 in 10 days | 9.47 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 9.16 | 4 in 10 days | 9.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 9.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.89 | 3 in 10 weeks | 9.71 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 9.01 | 4 in 10 weeks | 9.58 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DEI's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.6% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.8% | -3.9% | -6.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.5% | +3.4% | -0.7% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -3.0% | -0.1% | -4.6% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.0% | +2.3% | -3.2% | -19.3% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -5.0% | +0.8% | +6.8% | -9.4% |
| May 19, 2026 | -2.3% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +5.7% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -3.2% | +13.1% | +8.2% | +13.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among DEI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 14, 2020 |
32.21 +237.8% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
12.73 +33.5% |
| 50-day average | 10.59 +11.1% |
| 200-day average | 10.57 +10.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.71 +1.8% |
| Now | 9.53 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
9.29 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.89 -6.8% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
8.67 -9.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.