DFLI
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DFLI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.07 +8.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
2.30 +21.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 1.90 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.74 -8.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.57 -17.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 1.70 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.13 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1.74 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.07 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1.79 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.02 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.45 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1.66 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DFLI's daily swings (about 8.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | -9.4% | -20.8% | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | -9.5% | -8.1% | — | — |
| Oct 5, 2026 | -16.6% | -37.7% | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | -14.1% | +2.4% | -56.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.7% | 0.0% | -23.3% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -9.3% | +12.8% | -6.0% | -75.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -10.0% | -11.1% | -5.6% | -49.0% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -11.3% | +18.6% | +15.1% | +22.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | -16.6% | -37.7% | — | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -1.7% | +0.9% | -23.0% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -7.6% | -3.4% | -13.7% | -75.0% |
| Jun 12, 2025 | -16.3% | -24.8% | -52.8% | -17.9% |
| May 8, 2025 | -3.0% | -8.0% | -22.9% | -52.2% |
| Mar 26, 2025 | -7.8% | -12.5% | -49.5% | -83.6% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -3.2% | -9.1% | -37.8% | -80.7% |
| Dec 31, 2024 | -10.0% | +18.7% | -13.3% | -72.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among DFLI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 21, 2022 |
18,057.60 +950300.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 31, 2025 |
99.20 +5121.1% |
| 200-day average | 14.16 +645.3% |
| 50-day average | 6.01 +216.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.30 +21.1% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
1.90 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 30, 2026 |
1.90 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.57 -17.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.