DG
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- DG +1.99% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 73 big gains in the past 5 years, DG was higher a day later 39 times out of 73; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Gordon Haskett upgraded to Buy, target $140.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
132.55 +2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
135.85 +4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 132.52 · prior close 129.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
127.38 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
124.29 -4.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 126.56 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 133.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 127.38 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 132.55 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 128.15 | 4 in 10 days | 131.76 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 122.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 137.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 124.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 135.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 125.97 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 134.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DG's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +3.8% | +1.4% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +3.7% | -5.6% | -2.7% | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +3.1% | +0.9% | -5.7% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +5.1% | +3.7% | -0.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +3.8% | +1.1% | -2.7% | +3.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.1% | +8.6% | +1.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +4.4% | +5.3% | +9.1% | +8.4% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | +3.0% | +9.0% | +8.9% | +20.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among DG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 28, 2022 |
240.88 +81.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 180.00 +35.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
153.95 +16.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 142.83 +7.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 135.85 +2.5% |
| Now | 132.52 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
129.94 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 125.12 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 124.29 -6.2% |
| 50-day average | 123.74 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
94.13 -29.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 90.00 -32.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.