DHI
Homebuilders surge as long-term rates retreat
- DHI +4.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Homebuilders: Long-term rates retreated, lifting homebuilder stocks including TOL, PHM, DHI, and LEN (Yahoo Finance). (Yahoo Finance)
- Homebuilders basket +3.6% (+3.5 pts vs SPY; LEN +5.1%, PHM +3.1%, TOL +2.8%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.7%): After its 55 big gains in the past 5 years, DHI was higher a day later 23 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $141 → $130.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DHI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
135.88 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
138.70 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 139.06 · prior close 133.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
131.44 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
128.77 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 130.73 | 2 in 10 days | 136.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 131.44 | 3 in 10 days | 135.88 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 132.10 | 4 in 10 days | 135.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 127.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 140.38 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 128.77 | 3 in 10 weeks | 138.70 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 130.22 | 4 in 10 weeks | 137.15 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DHI's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DHI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 206.00 +48.1% |
| All-time closing high Sep 19, 2024 |
192.57 +38.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
166.78 +19.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 155.00 +11.5% |
| 200-day average | 147.35 +6.0% |
| 50-day average | 141.88 +2.0% |
| Now | 139.06 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 138.70 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
133.64 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
131.74 -5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.77 -7.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 125.00 -10.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.