DIS
Moving with its group (XLC +1.3%)
- DIS +1.93% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, DIS was higher a month later 26 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -6.0% and +7.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Raymond James maintained Outperform, lowered target $120 → $119.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
110.45 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
112.27 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 111.09 · prior close 108.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
107.55 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
105.80 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 107.09 | 2 in 10 days | 110.92 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 107.55 | 3 in 10 days | 110.45 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 107.99 | 4 in 10 days | 110.00 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.79 | 2 in 10 weeks | 113.36 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 105.80 | 3 in 10 weeks | 112.27 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 106.76 | 4 in 10 weeks | 111.27 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DIS's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 8, 2021 |
195.76 +76.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 144.00 +29.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 126.49 +13.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 9, 2026 |
115.00 +3.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 112.27 +1.1% |
| Now | 111.09 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
108.99 -1.9% |
| 50-day average | 106.00 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 105.80 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 103.12 -7.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
91.72 -17.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 88.00 -20.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.