DLTR
Moving with its group (XLP +1.1%)
- DLTR +1.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, DLTR was higher a month later 43 times out of 76; half the outcomes fell between -8.3% and +9.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DLTR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
124.33 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
127.57 +4.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 123.88 · prior close 121.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
119.25 -2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
116.21 -4.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 118.44 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 125.17 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 119.25 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 124.33 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 120.00 | 4 in 10 days | 123.54 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 114.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 129.52 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 116.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 127.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 117.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 125.78 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DLTR's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | +4.0% | -10.1% | -13.1% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +4.0% | -7.4% | -17.3% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +4.2% | +3.0% | +7.1% | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +4.9% | +10.9% | +12.6% | +0.3% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +4.1% | -1.3% | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| May 28, 2026 | +17.9% | -3.3% | +8.5% | +12.4% |
| May 14, 2026 | +3.7% | +6.4% | +25.5% | +43.8% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | +6.0% | -2.1% | -13.9% | +19.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among DLTR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 20, 2022 |
174.08 +40.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +37.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
141.21 +14.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 135.38 +9.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 127.57 +3.0% |
| Now | 123.88 |
| 50-day average | 122.38 -1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
121.76 -1.7% |
| 200-day average | 116.97 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 116.21 -6.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 98.00 -20.9% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
86.80 -29.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.