DNN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DNN +7.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +7.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DNN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.25 +3.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
2.35 +9.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.31 · prior close 2.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.08 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.98 -8.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.27 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.08 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.25 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.10 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.22 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.93 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.98 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.29 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DNN's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -5.5% | -15.6% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -6.7% | -3.4% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | -6.5% | -5.3% | -21.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.6% | +0.9% | -23.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.8% | -3.4% | +21.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -6.2% | -6.6% | +9.2% | -19.8% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -6.8% | -17.3% | -5.3% | -5.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -6.0% | -1.5% | +1.5% | -2.7% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | -4.6% | 0.0% | +13.7% | +46.0% |
| Mar 3, 2025 | -8.1% | -5.1% | -5.1% | +10.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among DNN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 21, 2007 |
12.65 +446.5% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
4.37 +88.8% |
| 200-day average | 3.38 +45.8% |
| 50-day average | 2.99 +29.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.35 +1.7% |
| Now | 2.31 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
2.16 -6.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.16 -6.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.98 -14.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.