DOCU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DOCU +2.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DOCU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
77.16 +2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
79.62 +5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 76.91 · prior close 75.23 | |
| Bargain buy side |
73.35 -2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
71.08 -5.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 77.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 73.35 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 77.16 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 73.91 | 4 in 10 days | 76.57 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 69.79 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 81.10 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 71.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 79.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 72.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 78.26 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DOCU's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +3.9% | +2.4% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | +4.1% | -3.4% | — | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | +3.7% | +2.0% | -0.3% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | +7.5% | +3.4% | +5.0% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +10.3% | -2.8% | +8.8% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +4.4% | +3.1% | +13.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +7.2% | +8.7% | +24.0% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | +3.3% | +9.5% | +23.6% | +41.3% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | +4.5% | +8.3% | +41.7% | +20.3% |
| Oct 4, 2024 | +1.4% | +7.9% | +9.4% | +42.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among DOCU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 3, 2021 |
310.05 +303.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 79.62 +3.5% |
| Now | 76.91 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
76.91 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
75.23 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.08 -7.6% |
| 50-day average | 66.13 -14.0% |
| 200-day average | 53.77 -30.1% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 23, 2026 |
41.75 -45.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.