DOW
Moving with its group (XLB +1.6%)
- DOW +1.82% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $0.64 expected (16 analysts); it moved ±4.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The materials ETF (XLB) +1.6% (+1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DOW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
29.68 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
30.31 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 29.72 · prior close 29.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.70 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
28.11 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.55 | 2 in 10 days | 29.85 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 28.70 | 3 in 10 days | 29.68 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 28.85 | 4 in 10 days | 29.53 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.77 | 2 in 10 weeks | 30.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 28.11 | 3 in 10 weeks | 30.31 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 28.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 29.96 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DOW's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DOW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 4, 2022 |
55.03 +85.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 41.00 +38.0% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 30, 2026 |
40.97 +37.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 33.62 +13.1% |
| 200-day average | 31.69 +6.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 30.31 +2.0% |
| Now | 29.72 |
| 50-day average | 29.48 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.19 -1.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 29.00 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 28.11 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
19.96 -32.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.