DPZ
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- DPZ +2.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 13 before the open: EPS $4.60 vs $4.39 expected (beat, +$0.21, +4.8%); revenue $1.2B (+1.1% beat). The stock moved -4.8% on Tue's session (-4.8 pts vs SPY).
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 13): After its 10 earnings beats in the past 5 years, DPZ was higher a week later 3 times out of 10; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +1.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, lowered target $350 → $325.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DPZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
301.72 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
309.09 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 302.23 · prior close 295.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
290.17 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
283.26 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 288.34 | 2 in 10 days | 303.64 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 290.17 | 3 in 10 days | 301.72 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 291.89 | 4 in 10 days | 299.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 279.27 | 2 in 10 weeks | 313.50 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 283.26 | 3 in 10 weeks | 309.09 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 287.02 | 4 in 10 weeks | 305.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DPZ's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DPZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 31, 2021 |
524.92 +73.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 455.00 +50.5% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 17, 2025 |
430.87 +42.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 373.15 +23.5% |
| 200-day average | 344.41 +14.0% |
| 50-day average | 320.74 +6.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 309.09 +2.3% |
| Now | 302.23 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
295.89 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 283.26 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 23, 2026 |
281.29 -6.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 260.00 -14.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.