DRI
Moving with its group (XLY +1.3%)
- DRI +2.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, DRI was higher a month later 38 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +6.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DRI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
212.14 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
216.70 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 213.47 · prior close 208.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
204.96 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
200.65 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 203.82 | 2 in 10 days | 213.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 204.96 | 3 in 10 days | 212.14 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 206.03 | 4 in 10 days | 211.04 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 198.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 219.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 200.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 216.70 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 203.00 | 4 in 10 weeks | 214.19 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DRI's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DRI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 276.00 +29.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 233.44 +9.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
225.84 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 216.70 +1.5% |
| Now | 213.47 |
| 50-day average | 209.86 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
208.52 -2.3% |
| 200-day average | 201.45 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 200.65 -6.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
164.00 -23.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 163.00 -23.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.