DTM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DTM −4.52% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: −4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DTM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
124.90 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
126.86 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 117.75 · prior close 123.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
121.78 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
119.90 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 121.29 | 2 in 10 days | 125.41 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 121.78 | 3 in 10 days | 124.90 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 122.25 | 4 in 10 days | 124.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 118.80 | 2 in 10 weeks | 128.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 119.90 | 3 in 10 weeks | 126.86 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 120.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 125.78 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DTM's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.0% | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | -1.7% | +0.6% | -0.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -1.6% | 0.0% | -5.4% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -2.4% | 0.0% | -5.0% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -9.7% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.3% | -7.2% | -12.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -1.9% | -1.2% | -8.1% | -16.9% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.0% | -2.6% | +4.5% | -8.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among DTM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
149.69 +27.1% |
| 200-day average | 133.01 +13.0% |
| 50-day average | 127.06 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 126.86 +7.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
123.33 +4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 119.90 +1.8% |
| Now | 117.75 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 24, 2025 |
102.85 -12.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.