DVA
Moving with its group (XLV +2.4%)
- DVA +3.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.4% (+2.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, DVA was higher a week later 36 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +3.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DVA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.16 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
188.53 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 186.53 · prior close 180.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
177.30 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
173.19 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 176.22 | 2 in 10 days | 185.30 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 177.30 | 3 in 10 days | 184.16 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 178.33 | 4 in 10 days | 183.11 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 170.82 | 2 in 10 weeks | 191.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 173.19 | 3 in 10 weeks | 188.53 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 175.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 186.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DVA's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DVA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 270.00 +44.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
240.96 +29.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 219.86 +17.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 188.53 +1.1% |
| Now | 186.53 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
180.70 -3.1% |
| 50-day average | 180.30 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 173.19 -7.1% |
| 200-day average | 172.99 -7.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 165.00 -11.5% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 14, 2026 |
103.87 -44.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.