DXCM
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- DXCM +3.14% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.7%): After its 55 big gains in the past 5 years, DXCM was higher a day later 30 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +1.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Overweight, target $115.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DXCM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.87 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
86.64 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 86.10 · prior close 83.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.09 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
80.42 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 81.65 | 2 in 10 days | 85.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 82.09 | 3 in 10 days | 84.87 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 82.51 | 4 in 10 days | 84.44 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 87.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 80.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 86.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 81.33 | 4 in 10 weeks | 85.66 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DXCM's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among DXCM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 17, 2021 |
162.82 +89.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 115.00 +33.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 96.23 +11.8% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 21, 2026 |
92.34 +7.3% |
| 50-day average | 87.45 +1.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 86.64 +0.6% |
| Now | 86.10 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
83.47 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 80.42 -6.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 79.00 -8.2% |
| 200-day average | 73.86 -14.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 10, 2025 |
54.84 -36.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.