DY
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- DY −1.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices DY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
267.36 +2.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
276.79 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 256.94 · prior close 259.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
252.77 -2.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
244.15 -6.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 250.47 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 269.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 252.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 267.36 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 254.92 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 265.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 239.22 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 282.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 244.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 276.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 248.83 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 271.59 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From DY's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -3.3% | -4.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -4.1% | -1.1% | -4.6% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -11.6% | -4.5% | -12.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.2% | -15.2% | -31.2% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -5.3% | +3.3% | -22.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.7% | 0.0% | -1.7% | -34.4% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.9% | -9.2% | -14.8% | -42.8% |
| May 29, 2026 | -4.7% | -8.6% | -0.9% | -42.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.8% | — | — |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among DY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 28, 2026 |
535.20 +108.3% |
| 200-day average | 385.15 +49.9% |
| 50-day average | 316.71 +23.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 276.79 +7.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
259.96 +1.2% |
| Now | 256.94 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
256.94 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 244.15 -5.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.