EBAY
Up more than its e-commerce peers
- EBAY +6.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +6.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its e-commerce peers +2.0% (+1.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+6.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.4%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, EBAY was higher a month later 43 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +8.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EBAY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
118.80 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
121.22 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 124.14 · prior close 116.88 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.99 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
112.69 -3.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 114.38 | 2 in 10 days | 119.43 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 114.99 | 3 in 10 days | 118.80 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 115.56 | 4 in 10 days | 118.22 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 111.36 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 122.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 112.69 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 121.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 113.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 119.89 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EBAY's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among EBAY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 145.00 +16.8% |
| Now | 124.14 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
124.14 0.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 121.22 -2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
116.88 -5.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 116.11 -6.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 112.69 -9.2% |
| 50-day average | 107.36 -13.5% |
| 200-day average | 101.89 -17.9% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
78.69 -36.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 71.00 -42.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.