ED
Moving with the market
- ED +0.83% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, ED was higher a week later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ED only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
110.63 +0.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
111.91 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 110.51 · prior close 109.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
108.58 -0.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
107.34 -2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 108.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 110.96 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 108.58 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 110.63 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 108.89 | 4 in 10 days | 110.32 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 106.61 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 112.67 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 107.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 111.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 108.02 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 111.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ED's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +1.7% | +2.6% | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | +1.6% | -4.1% | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +1.9% | +0.4% | -3.2% | -1.7% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.5% | -5.3% | -8.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +1.7% | +1.7% | +3.7% | -3.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.1% | +1.4% | +5.5% | +1.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | +1.5% | -0.1% | -1.6% | +0.7% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.1% | -0.7% | +3.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among ED's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 130.00 +17.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 16, 2026 |
113.57 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 111.91 +1.3% |
| Now | 110.51 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
109.60 -0.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 109.34 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 107.34 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 106.99 -3.2% |
| 50-day average | 106.27 -3.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 94.00 -14.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
93.02 -15.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.