EFOR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EFOR −4.43% on the last session vs SPY −0.91%: −3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EFOR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
40.88 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
42.62 +7.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 37.77 · prior close 39.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
38.21 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
36.65 -7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 37.79 | 2 in 10 days | 41.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 38.21 | 3 in 10 days | 40.88 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 38.60 | 4 in 10 days | 40.46 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 35.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 43.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 36.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 42.62 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 37.49 | 4 in 10 weeks | 41.66 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EFOR's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
Big drop and big gain: among EFOR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 4, 2022 |
131.26 +247.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 4, 2026 |
53.28 +41.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 42.62 +12.8% |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
39.52 +4.6% |
| Now | 37.77 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 36.65 -3.0% |
| 50-day average | 33.30 -11.8% |
| 200-day average | 32.53 -13.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 25, 2026 |
17.06 -54.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.