EFX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EFX +6.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +6.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $2.21 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±5.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+6.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, EFX was higher a week later 31 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EFX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
153.27 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
156.95 +4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 159.63 · prior close 150.36 | |
| Bargain buy side |
147.50 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
144.04 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 146.59 | 2 in 10 days | 154.23 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 147.50 | 3 in 10 days | 153.27 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 148.36 | 4 in 10 days | 152.39 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 142.05 | 2 in 10 weeks | 159.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 144.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 156.95 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 145.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 154.93 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EFX's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EFX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 13, 2024 |
301.14 +88.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 245.00 +53.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 24, 2025 |
231.16 +44.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 203.10 +27.2% |
| 200-day average | 178.38 +11.7% |
| 50-day average | 167.66 +5.0% |
| Now | 159.63 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 156.95 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
150.36 -5.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 148.00 -7.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 144.04 -9.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
137.24 -14.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.