EHC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EHC +1.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EHC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
128.24 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
130.35 +3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 128.29 · prior close 126.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
124.90 -1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
122.88 -2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 124.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 128.79 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 124.90 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 128.24 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 125.40 | 4 in 10 days | 127.73 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 121.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 131.61 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 122.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 130.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 123.98 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 129.19 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EHC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +3.1% | -0.3% | — | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +12.6% | -1.0% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +1.6% | -1.6% | +7.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.4% | -1.3% | +9.9% | +12.7% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +5.0% | +3.5% | +5.6% | +12.0% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.7% | +10.6% | +19.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +1.6% | +0.2% | +3.9% | +17.7% |
| May 12, 2026 | +3.1% | -3.1% | -5.3% | +15.7% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | +0.9% | -1.3% | -0.9% | -15.1% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | +1.1% | 0.0% | +0.4% | -8.7% |
| Jun 27, 2025 | +0.5% | -2.2% | -11.3% | +3.8% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | +11.8% | +2.9% | +6.7% | -5.3% |
| Nov 26, 2024 | +1.7% | -1.3% | -9.8% | -3.7% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | +1.1% | -1.8% | +3.9% | -2.5% |
| Aug 30, 2024 | +1.6% | -1.8% | +3.1% | +10.8% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | +1.9% | -0.4% | -0.2% | +10.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among EHC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 130.35 +1.6% |
| Now | 128.29 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
128.29 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
126.56 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 122.88 -4.2% |
| 50-day average | 122.35 -4.6% |
| 200-day average | 108.57 -15.4% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 2, 2026 |
93.31 -27.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.