ELF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ELF +4.74% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ELF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
110.49 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
113.48 +4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 113.25 · prior close 108.13 | |
| Bargain buy side |
105.82 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
103.03 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 105.08 | 2 in 10 days | 111.27 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 105.82 | 3 in 10 days | 110.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 106.51 | 4 in 10 days | 109.77 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 101.43 | 2 in 10 weeks | 115.28 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 103.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 113.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 104.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 111.83 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ELF's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ELF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 27, 2024 |
218.00 +92.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 17, 2025 |
136.92 +20.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 113.48 +0.2% |
| Now | 113.25 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
108.13 -4.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 103.03 -9.0% |
| 50-day average | 101.28 -10.6% |
| 200-day average | 79.54 -29.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 5, 2026 |
49.57 -56.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.