ELS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ELS +1.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue after the close: EPS $0.79 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ELS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
60.12 +0.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
60.76 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 60.56 · prior close 59.61 | |
| Bargain buy side |
59.10 -0.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
58.48 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 58.94 | 2 in 10 days | 60.29 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 59.10 | 3 in 10 days | 60.12 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 59.25 | 4 in 10 days | 59.97 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 58.11 | 2 in 10 weeks | 61.14 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 58.48 | 3 in 10 weeks | 60.76 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 58.82 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.41 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ELS's daily swings (about 0.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ELS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
76.27 +25.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
67.03 +10.7% |
| 200-day average | 62.51 +3.2% |
| 50-day average | 61.36 +1.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 60.76 +0.3% |
| Now | 60.56 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.61 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 58.48 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 1, 2026 |
57.62 -4.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.