ELV
Moving with the market
- ELV +0.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $4.69 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±5.4% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($430.32 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $428.09): After its 9 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, ELV was higher a month later 3 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between -3.7% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $457 → $469.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ELV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
434.70 +1.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
443.02 +3.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 430.32 · prior close 428.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
421.58 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
413.66 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 419.48 | 2 in 10 days | 436.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 421.58 | 3 in 10 days | 434.70 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 423.54 | 4 in 10 days | 432.69 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 409.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 447.98 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 413.66 | 3 in 10 weeks | 443.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 417.98 | 4 in 10 weeks | 438.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ELV's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | +0.8% | — | — | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +2.1% | -10.1% | -8.2% | -2.5% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +2.4% | +3.8% | +3.8% | -2.1% |
| Aug 30, 2024 | +0.9% | -2.4% | -7.9% | -26.7% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | +4.2% | -9.2% | -2.5% | -7.7% |
| May 22, 2024 | +0.4% | -7.4% | -0.8% | -0.5% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | +3.2% | +2.8% | +4.3% | -4.5% |
| Mar 15, 2024 | +0.5% | +0.2% | -1.2% | +4.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among ELV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 3, 2024 |
539.81 +25.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 492.00 +14.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 451.48 +4.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 443.02 +3.0% |
| Now | 430.32 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
430.32 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
428.09 -0.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 413.66 -3.9% |
| 50-day average | 402.32 -6.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 393.00 -8.7% |
| 200-day average | 366.20 -14.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 9, 2026 |
276.68 -35.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.