EME
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EME −2.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-2.9% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.9%): After its 73 big drops in the past 5 years, EME was higher a week later 49 times out of 73; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +4.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EME only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
764.19 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
788.13 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 723.77 · prior close 745.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
726.98 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
704.89 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 721.11 | 2 in 10 days | 770.41 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 726.98 | 3 in 10 days | 764.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 732.49 | 4 in 10 days | 758.44 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 692.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 802.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 704.89 | 3 in 10 weeks | 788.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 716.90 | 4 in 10 weeks | 774.93 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EME's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.8% | -5.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.0% | +1.1% | +3.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.5% | +1.9% | +3.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.4% | -10.3% | -11.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.1% | +7.1% | +2.7% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.1% | -2.6% | -0.8% | -6.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.0% | -8.2% | -9.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.3% | +0.7% | -5.9% | -7.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among EME's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,200.00 +65.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,033.29 +42.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 6, 2026 |
943.26 +30.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 885.00 +22.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 788.13 +8.9% |
| 200-day average | 779.34 +7.7% |
| 50-day average | 773.02 +6.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
745.35 +3.0% |
| Now | 723.77 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 704.89 -2.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
580.64 -19.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.