ENPH
Reddit attention is surging
- ENPH +1.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ENPH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
30.33 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
31.59 +7.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 29.89 · prior close 29.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.40 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
27.27 -7.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.10 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 30.66 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 28.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 30.33 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 28.68 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 30.03 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 26.62 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 32.36 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.27 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 31.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 27.88 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 30.90 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ENPH's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | -5.4% | -3.2% | -10.4% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -6.8% | +4.7% | -6.8% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.6% | +2.3% | +1.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -6.7% | -5.3% | -1.5% | -28.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -8.0% | +4.1% | -8.6% | -23.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -4.9% | -1.2% | -17.4% | -24.6% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -5.9% | -6.1% | -16.2% | -31.4% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -6.8% | -10.8% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ENPH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 2, 2022 |
336.00 +1024.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
72.33 +142.0% |
| 200-day average | 41.21 +37.9% |
| 50-day average | 35.92 +20.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 31.59 +5.7% |
| Now | 29.89 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.35 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.27 -8.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
26.12 -12.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.