EOG
Moving with the market
- EOG −0.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The oil & gas producers ETF (XOP) -1.2% (-1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $183 → $186.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EOG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
156.80 +1.7% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
160.08 +3.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 153.29 · prior close 154.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
151.63 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
148.52 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 150.80 | 2 in 10 days | 157.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 151.63 | 3 in 10 days | 156.80 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 152.40 | 4 in 10 days | 156.00 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 146.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 162.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 148.52 | 3 in 10 weeks | 160.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 150.21 | 4 in 10 weeks | 158.27 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EOG's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | +3.5% | -9.2% | +0.3% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | +2.2% | -9.4% | -2.5% | — |
| Mar 2, 2026 | +3.7% | +2.3% | +12.4% | +7.0% |
| Jan 15, 2025 | +1.0% | -1.6% | -5.0% | -19.7% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | +0.6% | +0.2% | -7.8% | +0.2% |
| Apr 3, 2024 | +1.2% | +3.1% | -0.8% | -4.6% |
| Nov 4, 2022 | +2.8% | +3.4% | -10.2% | -8.5% |
| May 6, 2022 | +7.1% | -6.0% | +10.4% | -17.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among EOG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 193.00 +25.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 164.21 +7.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 160.08 +4.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
154.19 +0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
154.19 +0.6% |
| Now | 153.29 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 148.52 -3.1% |
| 50-day average | 145.35 -5.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 138.00 -10.0% |
| 200-day average | 133.01 -13.2% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
99.31 -35.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 37 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.