EQT
Moving with the market
- EQT +0.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 48 big gains in the past 5 years, EQT typically gained 0.1% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +1.1%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #226 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#196 H | +0.2%#260 H | +1.0%#224 H | +3.0%#213 M |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 49 | +0.1%#243 H | +1.5%#93 H | +0.8%#284 H | +3.9%#256 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+2.6% or better) | 48 | +0.1%#226 H | +0.7%#198 H | +1.0%#279 H | -0.5%#356 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +0.1%#238 M | -1.4%#421 M | +1.6%#218 M | +3.0%#205 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -1.1%#210 L | +3.3%#49 L | +6.6%#81 L | +12.8%#113 L |
| 52-week high | 9 | -0.5%#337 M | +0.4%#209 M | -0.3%#281 M | -5.8%#392 L |
| 52-week low Sep 30 | 2 | -0.6%– | -1.0%– | +4.8%– | +16.3%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | +1.1%#62 M | +2.1%#67 M | +1.6%#237 M | +4.1%#232 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | +0.3%#169 M | +2.3%#60 M | +3.6%#195 M | +2.2%#252 L |
| RSI oversold | 8 | +2.5%#82 M | +1.7%#78 M | +0.1%#324 L | +5.8%#253 L |
| RSI overbought | 11 | 0.0%#251 M | +0.4%#207 M | -5.4%#318 M | +3.6%#213 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is EQT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+2.6% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 48 | +0.12% (-0.1 to +0.3) | High | #226 of 500 | 52% | +0.26% |
-5%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 47 | +0.68% (-1.6 to +1.4) | High | #198 of 500 | 53% | -0.04% |
-10%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 47 ≈33 indep. | +1.02% (-0.9 to +2.2) | High | #279 of 500 | 57% | -1.76% |
-20%
+18%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 45 ≈15 indep. | -0.53% (-5.8 to +4.8) | Medium | #356 of 499 | 49% | -3.39% |
-28%
+36%
|
Range of outcomes: all of EQT's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 37 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +0.7%H vs 0.0% | +0.9%H vs -0.9% | -2.7%M vs -3.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 11 | +0.3%M vs 0.0% | +0.1%M vs 0.0% | +1.5%M vs +2.6% | +24.8%L vs +10.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 30 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +0.3%H vs +0.3% | +1.3%H vs +1.1% | -0.9%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 18 | -0.4%M vs 0.0% | +0.9%M vs +0.1% | -2.7%M vs +0.9% | +3.6%M vs +4.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 36 | +0.3%H vs 0.0% | +0.3%H vs 0.0% | +1.0%H vs +0.6% | -0.9%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 12 | -0.1%M vs +0.1% | +0.9%M vs +0.6% | +1.9%M vs +1.8% | +9.7%M vs +4.6% |
The same event split by where EQT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1 @ $50.09 | +3.1% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.2% | … | … | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $54.08 | +4.6% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.5% | -2.0% | +1.0% | … |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $53.84 | +8.4% on the day (line +2.7%) | -1.1% | -2.7% | +0.1% | … |
| May 19, 2026 | May 19 @ $59.58 | +4.0% on the day (line +2.7%) | -3.2% | -7.7% | -15.1% | -10.0% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $58.04 | +2.9% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.2% | +0.9% | -3.4% | -14.9% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mar 25 @ $67.53 | +4.0% on the day (line +2.8%) | -1.6% | -10.1% | -13.3% | -23.8% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Mar 11 @ $63.45 | +3.2% on the day (line +2.7%) | +1.3% | -0.5% | -8.1% | -17.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $61.06 | +2.8% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.4% | +0.9% | +4.9% | -10.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Feb 11 @ $56.43 | +2.8% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.4% | +5.3% | +13.4% | -1.2% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $54.35 | +6.5% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.2% | +2.1% | +10.7% | +7.4% |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Nov 26 @ $58.49 | +4.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +3.2% | +1.8% | -7.6% | +4.8% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Nov 11 @ $60.16 | +3.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.2% | -3.2% | -7.6% | -5.8% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Nov 3 @ $55.21 | +4.3% on the day (line +2.6%) | 0.0% | +5.8% | +9.8% | -0.5% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Oct 15 @ $54.79 | +4.0% on the day (line +2.5%) | -4.0% | -3.5% | +9.0% | -9.7% |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Sep 24 @ $52.46 | +4.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +1.6% | +5.8% | +0.9% | +3.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.