EQT
Moving with its group (XOP -1.2%)
- EQT −0.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The oil & gas producers ETF (XOP) -1.2% (-1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 49 big drops in the past 5 years, EQT was higher a week later 30 times out of 49; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +3.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EQT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
53.67 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
54.82 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 52.34 · prior close 52.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
51.85 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
50.75 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 51.56 | 2 in 10 days | 53.97 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 51.85 | 3 in 10 days | 53.67 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 52.12 | 4 in 10 days | 53.39 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 50.12 | 2 in 10 weeks | 55.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 50.75 | 3 in 10 weeks | 54.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 51.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 54.19 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EQT's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -5.1% | +1.3% | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.6% | +1.5% | -4.9% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -2.6% | +5.5% | +8.5% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -2.6% | +1.5% | +11.1% | +8.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -2.7% | -3.4% | -4.8% | +3.0% |
| May 20, 2026 | -3.2% | -4.3% | -10.4% | -6.5% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | -2.5% | +2.9% | +5.2% | -12.4% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -4.6% | -5.8% | -8.3% | -17.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among EQT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 81.00 +54.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 25, 2026 |
67.53 +29.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 67.19 +28.4% |
| 200-day average | 55.22 +5.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 54.82 +4.7% |
| 50-day average | 52.85 +1.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
52.75 +0.8% |
| Now | 52.34 |
| Lowest analyst target | 52.00 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 50.75 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
48.56 -7.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.