ERAS
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ERAS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.90 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
15.62 +8.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 14.98 · prior close 14.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.82 -3.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
13.18 -8.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 15.09 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 13.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 14.90 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 13.98 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 14.73 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 12.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 16.06 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 15.62 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 13.53 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 15.22 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ERAS's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ERAS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
24.34 +62.5% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 23, 2026 |
22.47 +50.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.62 +4.3% |
| 50-day average | 15.43 +3.0% |
| 200-day average | 15.03 +0.4% |
| Now | 14.98 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
14.35 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.18 -12.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
2.20 -85.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.