ERIC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ERIC +8.72% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +8.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings today before the open: EPS $0.14 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 7.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ERIC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.74 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
9.95 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 10.41 · prior close 9.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.42 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
9.22 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.37 | 2 in 10 days | 9.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 9.42 | 3 in 10 days | 9.74 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 9.47 | 4 in 10 days | 9.69 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.11 | 2 in 10 weeks | 10.08 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.22 | 3 in 10 weeks | 9.95 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 9.33 | 4 in 10 weeks | 9.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ERIC's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ERIC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 3, 2000 |
71.62 +587.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
13.51 +29.7% |
| 200-day average | 10.67 +2.5% |
| Now | 10.41 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.95 -4.4% |
| 50-day average | 9.78 -6.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
9.58 -8.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.22 -11.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
9.00 -13.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.