ERIE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ERIE +3.66% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, ERIE was higher a month later 29 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -6.8% and +6.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ERIE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
234.82 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
240.77 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 238.54 · prior close 230.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
225.50 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
219.92 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 224.02 | 2 in 10 days | 236.37 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 225.50 | 3 in 10 days | 234.82 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 226.88 | 4 in 10 days | 233.38 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 216.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 244.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 219.92 | 3 in 10 weeks | 240.77 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 222.96 | 4 in 10 weeks | 237.49 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ERIE's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ERIE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 24, 2024 |
523.07 +119.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
322.37 +35.1% |
| 200-day average | 243.30 +2.0% |
| 50-day average | 241.78 +1.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 240.77 +0.9% |
| Now | 238.54 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
230.11 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 219.92 -7.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 3, 2026 |
204.70 -14.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.