ERO
Moving with the market
- ERO +0.21% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ERO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.71 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
37.32 +8.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 34.53 · prior close 34.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.25 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
31.82 -7.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 32.87 | 2 in 10 days | 36.12 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 33.25 | 3 in 10 days | 35.71 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 33.61 | 4 in 10 days | 35.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 38.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 31.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 37.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 32.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 36.43 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ERO's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -8.5% | -4.9% | +7.5% | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -4.4% | +2.1% | -1.2% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -4.7% | +4.8% | -2.0% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.7% | +4.0% | +22.2% | +54.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -8.9% | -3.6% | -5.0% | +34.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -16.2% | +14.0% | -7.5% | +35.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | -8.9% | -1.0% | +10.4% | +28.1% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -4.1% | -2.2% | +13.1% | -4.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among ERO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
40.40 +17.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 37.32 +8.1% |
| 50-day average | 36.09 +4.5% |
| Now | 34.53 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.46 -0.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.82 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 30.52 -11.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
19.89 -42.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.