ES
Moving with the market
- ES −0.41% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ES only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
67.30 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
68.10 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 66.39 · prior close 66.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
66.04 -0.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
65.27 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 65.84 | 2 in 10 days | 67.51 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 66.04 | 3 in 10 days | 67.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 66.23 | 4 in 10 days | 67.11 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 64.83 | 2 in 10 weeks | 68.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 65.27 | 3 in 10 weeks | 68.10 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 65.69 | 4 in 10 weeks | 67.66 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ES's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ES's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 85.00 +28.0% |
| All-time closing high Aug 18, 2022 |
78.32 +18.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
74.51 +12.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 73.33 +10.5% |
| 200-day average | 68.79 +3.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 68.10 +2.6% |
| 50-day average | 68.04 +2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
66.67 +0.4% |
| Now | 66.39 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 65.27 -1.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
60.74 -8.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 52.00 -21.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.