ESI
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ESI −1.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close (date not confirmed): EPS $0.48 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ESI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
36.72 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
37.81 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 35.34 · prior close 35.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
35.02 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.01 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.75 | 2 in 10 days | 37.00 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 35.02 | 3 in 10 days | 36.72 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 35.27 | 4 in 10 days | 36.46 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.43 | 2 in 10 weeks | 38.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 34.01 | 3 in 10 weeks | 37.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 34.56 | 4 in 10 weeks | 37.21 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ESI's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -2.7% | +5.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.5% | -3.0% | +6.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.4% | +3.3% | +3.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.9% | -4.8% | -10.9% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.5% | +6.5% | -1.3% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.8% | -0.2% | -4.6% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.2% | -11.3% | -19.7% | -20.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.6% | +4.1% | -16.5% | -23.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among ESI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
48.98 +38.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 37.81 +7.0% |
| 200-day average | 36.37 +2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.86 +1.5% |
| 50-day average | 35.83 +1.4% |
| Now | 35.34 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 34.01 -3.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
22.77 -35.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.