ESLT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ESLT +5.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +5.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ESLT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
716.40 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
735.42 +4.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 741.41 · prior close 701.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
686.67 -2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
668.92 -4.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 681.96 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 721.35 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 686.67 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 716.40 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 691.09 | 4 in 10 days | 711.82 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 658.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 746.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 668.92 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 735.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 678.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 724.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ESLT's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | +2.9% | +6.2% | -13.4% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +3.6% | +2.8% | +3.6% | -7.3% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +11.5% | -13.7% | -19.3% | -20.2% |
| May 26, 2026 | +11.0% | -0.4% | -13.9% | -15.2% |
| May 4, 2026 | +3.2% | -7.3% | -3.3% | -0.9% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | +4.0% | +8.4% | -1.0% | -10.3% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | +16.0% | -11.8% | -14.2% | -18.9% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | +7.8% | +8.8% | +2.4% | +3.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among ESLT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 17, 2026 |
1,010.38 +36.3% |
| 200-day average | 777.22 +4.8% |
| Now | 741.41 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 735.42 -0.8% |
| 50-day average | 729.60 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
701.38 -5.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 668.92 -9.8% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 1, 2025 |
452.56 -39.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.