ESS
Moving with the market
- ESS +0.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ESS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
271.71 +0.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
274.64 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 269.82 · prior close 269.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
267.05 -0.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
264.20 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 266.29 | 2 in 10 days | 272.48 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 267.05 | 3 in 10 days | 271.71 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 267.75 | 4 in 10 days | 271.00 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 262.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 276.38 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 264.20 | 3 in 10 weeks | 274.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 265.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 273.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ESS's daily swings (about 0.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ESS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 352.00 +30.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 304.07 +12.7% |
| All-time closing high Apr 21, 2022 |
302.60 +12.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
295.51 +9.5% |
| 50-day average | 275.44 +2.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 274.64 +1.8% |
| Now | 269.82 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
269.37 -0.2% |
| 200-day average | 264.23 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 264.20 -2.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 239.00 -11.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
232.76 -13.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.