ESTC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ESTC +2.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ESTC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
94.81 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
98.32 +6.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 94.77 · prior close 92.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
89.39 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
86.20 -6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 88.54 | 2 in 10 days | 95.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 89.39 | 3 in 10 days | 94.81 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 90.19 | 4 in 10 days | 93.97 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 84.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 100.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 86.20 | 3 in 10 weeks | 98.32 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 87.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 96.38 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ESTC's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ESTC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 16, 2021 |
186.78 +97.1% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 28, 2026 |
99.91 +5.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 98.32 +3.7% |
| Now | 94.77 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
92.06 -2.9% |
| 50-day average | 87.99 -7.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 86.20 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 65.89 -30.5% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
43.30 -54.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.