ETH
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,827 | — | 0.0%917/1826 up | 0.0%916/1822 up | -1.1%825/1806 up | +0.5%897/1764 up |
| Big drop (-3.5% or worse) | 82 | — | -0.6%34/82 up | 0.0%42/82 up | +0.6%41/81 up | +1.3%44/79 up |
| Big gain (+3.9% or better) | 102 | — | -0.8%43/102 up | -1.1%42/102 up | -2.1%39/102 up | +2.9%52/100 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | +0.6%4/8 up | +4.7%5/8 up | +1.5%4/8 up | +0.9%4/8 up |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | -1.2%2/5 up | -0.6%1/5 up | -10.7%1/5 up | +5.2%4/5 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | — | +1.9%7/8 up | +6.0%6/8 up | +12.4%5/8 up | +14.3%6/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | — | -1.4%2/7 up | -2.1%3/7 up | -2.2%2/7 up | -7.0%3/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 17 | — | -1.4%6/17 up | +0.2%9/17 up | -2.2%8/17 up | +0.1%10/17 up |
| RSI overbought | 19 | — | +1.1%11/19 up | +2.3%12/19 up | +1.3%11/19 up | +7.3%11/18 up |
| Volume spike | 10 | — | -1.4%4/10 up | +1.0%7/10 up | +2.6%5/10 up | +5.0%6/10 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 5 | — | -1.4%1/5 up | +3.0%3/5 up | +3.6%3/5 up | +36.7%4/5 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is ETH's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1826 | +0.02% | 917 of 1826 | -0.04% |
-17%
+22%
|
|
| 1 week | 1822 ≈365 indep. | +0.05% | 916 of 1822 | -0.36% |
-33%
+42%
|
|
| 1 month | 1806 ≈86 indep. | -1.08% | 825 of 1806 | -2.08% |
-45%
+60%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1764 ≈28 indep. | +0.48% | 897 of 1764 | -3.74% |
-68%
+115%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ETH's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 771 | +0.1%770 events vs +0.1% | +0.1%766 events vs +0.1% | -0.7%750 events vs -0.7% | +0.1%708 events vs +0.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 857 | 0.0%857 events vs 0.0% | +0.1%857 events vs +0.1% | -0.3%857 events vs -0.3% | +11.7%857 events vs +11.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 843 | +0.1%843 events vs +0.1% | +0.1%843 events vs +0.1% | -0.1%838 events vs -0.1% | +0.6%796 events vs +0.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 935 | 0.0%934 events vs 0.0% | 0.0%930 events vs 0.0% | -1.7%919 events vs -1.7% | +2.1%919 events vs +2.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 828 | -0.1%828 events vs -0.1% | -0.5%828 events vs -0.5% | -0.1%824 events vs -0.1% | +3.7%787 events vs +3.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 980 | +0.1%979 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%975 events vs +0.2% | -1.8%963 events vs -1.8% | +0.2%958 events vs +0.2% |
The same event split by where ETH stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.