ETN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ETN −2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Less than its group: its ai servers & data centers peers -5.2% (-5.2 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.9× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ETN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
418.52 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
430.78 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 399.50 · prior close 408.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
399.41 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
388.04 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 396.39 | 2 in 10 days | 421.70 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 399.41 | 3 in 10 days | 418.52 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 402.24 | 4 in 10 days | 415.56 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 381.51 | 2 in 10 weeks | 438.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 388.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 430.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 394.23 | 4 in 10 weeks | 424.02 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ETN's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.1% | -5.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.6% | +10.8% | +8.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.2% | +2.0% | +7.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.3% | -5.1% | -5.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -2.7% | +2.8% | +1.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.0% | +4.8% | +14.2% | +3.4% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.2% | -1.6% | +0.7% | +4.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.0% | +5.1% | +2.4% | +9.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among ETN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 534.00 +33.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 482.89 +20.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
459.96 +15.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 430.78 +7.8% |
| 50-day average | 424.77 +6.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
408.85 +2.3% |
| Now | 399.50 |
| 200-day average | 392.38 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 388.04 -2.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 333.00 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 17, 2025 |
313.20 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.